Geomodeling and geovisualizations in urban planning und real estate industry: the example of office market research
Modeling, quantitative analysis, and forecasting in urban planning have a tradition since the sixties when very complex models for the whole “system of the city” were developed. After a phase of criticism about these complex black box programs in the eighties the topic got in the research focus again because of the easier possibilities for visualizing the results by the means of GIS. Subsequently, geomodeling is also interesting for more specific questions. The example shown in the paper is office market modeling - with a case study in Stuttgart. Due to higher vacancy rates and the degradation of buildings especially from the sixties and the seventies the subject is relevant for investors and real estate brokers but also for city administrations who try to avoid the degradation of whole areas. The classical time-series based office market models from urban economics describe the movement of the entire market but they do not consider local heterogeneity. Crosssectional models like hedonic price modeling and an adaptation of the hedonic model for vacancy rates shown in the paper are difficult to couple with forecasting results. The microsimulation approach is the best way to integrate forecasting and a detailed spatial resolution. It consists in simulating movements, location choices, and vacancy at the building level. The paper presents the equations and exemplary results of the different simulation steps.
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